Sunday, March 18, 2012

Treasury to announce $25 billion profit on mortgage bonds: WSJ

(Reuters) - The Treasury Department may announce on Monday that taxpayers have made a $25 billion profit on mortgage bonds purchased at the height of the meltdown, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Treasury had spent about $225 billion on purchases of mortgage debt over 16 months before it began selling the securities last year, the Journal said.

The government last week sold the last of the bonds, liquidating the Treasury's ownership of debt backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , the newspaper said.

Investors were worried about the movement of asset prices in the event of curtailment of government support.

"We said if we thought there was any stress in the market around this, we would pull back," Mary Miller, the Treasury's assistant secretary for financial markets, told the Journal.

"We frankly never saw that and just continued," she added.

The mortgage purchases were one of the tools employed by the U.S. government to prop up the financial system at the height of the credit crisis. Separately, the Federal Reserve had also rolled out its own programs to achieve economic stability.

Treasury Department could not immediately be reached for comment by Reuters outside regular U.S. business hours.

(Reporting by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Ramya Venugopal)

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Foxconn not to take legal action after retraction

TAIPEI (Reuters) - Foxconn Technology Group <2354.TW>, the top maker of Apple Inc's iPhones and iPads, said on Monday it had no plans to take legal action over a U.S. radio program about its activity in China, parts of which have been retracted.

But the company said the broadcast, which has generated public debate on journalistic ethics in the United States, had hurt its reputation.

The radio program "This American Life" last week retracted an episode critical of working conditions at a Chinese factory of Foxconn, saying it had contained "numerous fabrications".

The retracted episode, broadcast on January 6, was based heavily on a one-man theatrical show by actor Mike Daisey: "The Agony and the Ecstasy of Steve Jobs."

"Our client is Apple Inc... Our corporate image has been totally ruined. The point is whatever media that cited the program should not have reported it without confirming (with us)," said Simon Hsing, Foxconn's spokesman.

"We have no plans to take legal action... We hope nothing similar will happen again."

Working practices at Foxconn's huge plants in China came under intense scrutiny in 2010 after a series of suicides among young workers. Last June three workers died in an explosion at a Foxconn plant in Chengdu, western China.

Daisey's play and its attendant publicity, including the radio segment, have played a big role in pressuring Apple to allow outside inspectors at its contract manufacturing facilities in China, mostly owned by Foxconn Technology.

The executive producer of "This American Life" said in a broadcast last week that most of the retracted program's content was true and corroborated by independent investigation. The inaccuracies were linked to the actors' account of his trip to China.

Foxconn said recently it had raised wages of its Chinese workers by 16-25 percent from February, the third rise since 2010.

Apple, criticized over working conditions at its chain of suppliers in China, said last week that a U.S. non-profit labor group had begun an "unprecedented" inspection of working conditions at its main contract manufacturers.

Last month the New York Times published an investigation into working practices at Apple supplier's plants in China that documented poor health and safety conditions and long working hours.

At around 0340 GMT, shares of Hon Hai Precision <2317.TW>, the group's listed flagship unit, slipped 1.9 percent. Foxconn is not listed as a group.

Other Apple supplier also were down, with Genius <3406.TW> down 3 percent, while the main index <.TWII> sank 0.31 percent.

(Reporting by Faith Hung; Editing by Ron Popeski)

Apple to decide on its $98 billion cash pile

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Inc said it would host a conference call on Monday morning to discuss the outcome of discussions about its cash balance as investors clamor for a return from its massive holdings.

Apple has $98 billion in cash and securities, sparking calls by investors to put the huge hoard to work. ISI Group analyst Brian Marshall said the cash balance equates to $104 a share.

Wall Street has increasingly bet that Apple will this year return cash to shareholders, taking their cue from Chief Executive Tim Cook's comments about "active discussions" at the top levels about the matter.

Cook recently said he had been "thinking very deeply" about investors' demands that the iPad and iPod maker return some of the cash to shareholders via a dividend.

"Frankly speaking, it's more than we need to run the company," Cook said at the annual shareholders meeting in February.

Analysts have said the return of cash to shareholders could take the form of a one-time dividend or share buyback to address a longstanding desire on the part of investors, while potentially opening the stock to a new class of investors who seek a dividend yield.

"A dividend makes sense," said Shaw Wu, analyst with Sterne Agee. The decision "is probably going to be pretty binary. It's going to be either yes or no. Many are hoping the answer is going to be yes.

"It's more likely they are considering it. I am not sure they are going to necessarily say it's to be effective immediately," Wu said.

On the alternative of a buyback, Wu said it would be possible, but the value to shareholders would be more questionable.

"The issue with (a) buyback is that the payback for investors is not as tangible. With a dividend, you get a check in the mail," Wu said.

Wu discounted the possibility of a stock split, saying it makes it more difficult to beat earnings consensus numbers.

Mounting anticipation over a buyback, along with hopes the newest iPad will keep sales momentum strong, helped propel Apple's stock to a record high this month past $600 a share and has made Apple the most valuable U.S. company by market capitalization. The stock on Friday closed at $585.57.

ISI's Marshall said a dividend would drive additional stock purchases from top 20 dividend mutual funds and other investors as they make Apple a top holding.

Marshall said a dividend could be as high as $14.65 per share annually.

The Apple call, to be held at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT) on Monday, will not provide an update on the current quarter nor will it touch upon any topics other than cash, the company said in a statement on Sunday.

Apple declined to comment further on the press advisory.

(Reporting by Poornima Gupta in San Francisc and Jessica Hall in Philadelphia; Editing by Dale Hudson and Leslie Adler)

Global view improving, risks still to downside: IMF's Zhu

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Global economic growth will slow this year, with the United States looking much improved but risks still to the downside as Europe's financial markets remain fragile, the deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
Growth in emerging markets will be strong but the full impact of the slowdown in developed economies has yet to fully filter through to other regions, Zhu Min said at Credit Suisse's Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong.
Recent U.S. economic data "look much improved", although a key challenge is creating strong growth in a deleveraging environment, Zhu said.
"Number one, the global growth rate is slowing down. Number two, things are getting better. Number three, the risks are still on the downside," he said.
Zhu, a former deputy governor of the Chinese central bank, was speaking a day after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the global economy had stepped back from the brink and signs of stabilization were emerging.
He said China must rebalance its economy to encourage stronger domestic demand, and added the country's exchange rate must move into a more flexible regime, echoing similar comments by Lagarde on Sunday.
Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang, also speaking at the weekend, said the world's second-largest economy cannot delay tough economic reforms and promised flexible policies to keep growth brisk and prices stable.
Zhu was appointed to the newly created deputy managing director post at the IMF in July, in a move aimed at recognizing China's growing clout in the global economy.
The IMF has warned that China's annual economic growth could be cut nearly in half this year if Europe's debt crisis tips the world economy into a recession.
Zhu said economic trends and policy in China were pointing to a soft landing for China's economy, which has been one of the few drivers of global growth in recent years.
"In Europe, the financial markets are still very fragile," Zhu said. "There is no room for any mistake, any slip-up in the market."
The IMF on March 15 approved a 28 billion euro bailout for Greece, warning Athens there was no room for missteps in implementing the economic program.
The latest 28 billion euro loan is part of a bigger IMF-EU bailout package after Greece agreed to a series of painful economic reforms, spending cuts and completing a debt swap that imposed losses of as much as 74 percent on private bondholders.
(Reporting by Farah Master; Editing by Kim Coghill)

RUSAL 2011 net dives 92 percent on Norilsk valuation

HONG KONG (Reuters) - RUSAL, the world's top aluminum maker, posted a 92 percent drop in yearly net profit, hit by a write-down in the value of its stake in miner Norilsk Nickel as it grapples with a damaging row over its future between two Russian billionaires.

Despite the profit plunge, RUSAL <0486.HK> said its adjusted net profit, which it described as the major indicator of its core business, rose 25 percent to $987 million from $792 million in 2010 due to lower debt costs.

It forecast near-term pressure on aluminum prices, which fell sharply in late 2011, due to global volatility and excessive stock, but added that growth in developing countries would keep demand robust through 2012.

"The bottom line looks pretty low but its underlying performance is in line with market expectations," said Robin Tsui, an analyst at BOC International.

"As an aluminum producer, its 2011 results were pretty good when compared with those loss-making companies," he added.

RUSAL's shares added 2.5 percent in Hong Kong after tumbling 14 percent last week as its former chairman and Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg said the company was in "deep crisis".

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RUSAL results graphic: http://link.reuters.com/fep27s

RUSAL shares vs aluminum http://link.reuters.com/myv96s

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The company on Sunday threatened to sue Vekselberg, saying his comments had damaged its reputation and shareholder value, and named Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange chairman Barry Cheung as its new chairman.

Vekselberg, who with a partner holds a 15.8 percent stake in the firm, quit as chairman last week in a row over strategy with Oleg Deripaska, the main shareholder and another Russian billionaire.

The boardroom row has highlighted a bitter dispute over how to relieve the company of an $11 billion debt burden inherited from its $14 billion purchase of a quarter of Norilsk Nickel at the top of the market in 2008. Vekselberg wants to sell the stake back to Norilsk but has been consistently overruled by Deripaska.

However, RUSAL faces no significant principal debt repayments until 2016, and analysts believe Deripaska, who holds a 47.4 percent stake in the company, is unlikely to part with the Norilsk stake.

"We do not have any scheduled repayments in 2012," Deputy CEO Oleg Mukhamedshin said in a conference call after the company's results. "The company is comfortable with existing debt requirements."

The company's priority was to continue reducing debt, but it was not currently considering a refinancing, Mukhamedshin said.

RUSAL, also listed in Paris, posted a net profit of $237 million for 2011 against $2.87 billion a year earlier, lagging an average forecast of $1.91 billion from 22 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. The results included a share of profit in Norilsk Nickel, the re-evaluation of its energy supply contracts and other non-cash items.

Fourth quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization fell 46 percent to $382 million from $708 million.

Its aluminum output edged up one percent to 4.12 million metric tonnes (4.54 million tons) in 2011 and output of alumina, the key material for the production of the lightweight metal, rose 4 percent to 8.15 million metric tonnes.

RUSAL's shares, correlated to the aluminum price, are trading around half their 2010 Hong Kong IPO price of HK$10.80. The Hang Seng Index <.HSI> was up 1.1 percent in the same period.

Many high cost producers suffered losses in the last quarter of 2011 as increasing uncertainties in the global economy depressed demand while production continued to be in surplus.

RUSAL's competitor in China, Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) <2600.HK> <601600.SS>, on Friday posted a bigger-than-expected quarterly net loss of 729.6 million yuan ($115 million)and warned of losses in the first quarter of 2012.

However, RUSAL has forecast 6-8 percent of global capacity will be shut in the first half of 2012 and that could help to make the market be more balanced this year, it said.

Global consumption of aluminum, widely used in aerospace, construction, auto, packaging and other industries, would rise 7 percent this year with the largest growth from China and India while Europe is likely to be flat, RUSAL said.

(Reporting by Alison Leung; Editing by Richard Pullin)

Stocks' correction coming? Not that again

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors are beginning to wonder if this "Energizer Bunny" of a rally can just keep going without taking a break or a fall.

Every Friday for the past couple of months, the question has hung in the back of investors' minds: Is the stock market's rally strong enough to continue without a correction?

Even with the S&P 500 above levels unseen since before the financial crisis, the answer remains: Yes.

The broad market index broke through 1,400 -- a psychologically important level -- for the first time in four years last week. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 1,404.17, its highest since May 20, 2008. At Friday's close, the index was up for nine out of the past 10 weeks.

The rally has taken the Nasdaq up to a 12-year recovery high, while it lifted the Dow <.DJI> comfortably above 13,000 to its highest level since December 2007.

"We are seeing this unbelievable rally in the market and yet the market is unbelievably complacent. We haven't been this bullish for a long time," said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, based in Austin, Texas.

Indeed, the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX <.VIX>, Wall Street's fear gauge, plunged to a five-year low despite the S&P 500's stunning gain of 12 percent for the year so far. The VIX measures the expected volatility in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days and generally moves in the opposite direction of the broad market. Investors often use VIX options and futures as a hedge against a market decline.

Frederick said the only concern is the wide spread between second- and third-month VIX futures, suggesting a rise in volatility in the longer term. But the front-month futures that expire this week have come down to levels near the spot VIX. The VIX fell 6.2 percent on Friday to end at 14.47, its lowest close since June 2007.

"I would like to see the VIX around 17 just because it tends to have a significant pop when there is bad news at current levels," Frederick said, adding that "frankly" there isn't that much negative news out there.

STRENGTH IN MIDCAPS

Further evidence of the market's bullish sentiment: The S&P 400 Midcap Index <.MID> has popped above the 1,000 mark, an area of strong resistance since last year, according to Ryan Detrick, a senior technical strategist with Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.

"It's a big area of resistance, but we have moved above this. If we manage to stay here, then the strength in the overall market will advance further," Detrick said.

"Historically, April has been a strong month so we can even see the market going up to 1,440, which is the high made in May 2008," he added.

TRACKING THE BIG APPLE

The direction of Apple shares will also be in focus this week after the stock hit the $600 mark for the first time in history last week, only about a month after it topped 500.

Apple currently accounts for about 18 percent of the Nasdaq 100 stock index <.NDX>. Its weighting was cut to 12.3 percent from 20.5 percent last April, but the price surge has pushed the stock's weighting back up, making this index of 100 well-known companies hostage to the performance of a few technology titans like Apple.

With Apple's heavy weighting, investors are questioning whether the broad market can continue to rally even with a pullback in Apple shares. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC>, the barometer of tech stocks, closed on Friday at 3,055.26 -- its highest close since November 2000.

"It's a name that a lot of people have exposure to so it definitely has an impact on indexes, but it seems even without Apple, the money gets put to work in other sectors and stocks," Detrick said.

While the VIX has been sliding, the expected volatility in Apple has increased, judging by a VIX index that tracks Apple options. Apple, like IBM and other bellwether names, has its own VIX index.

The CBOE Apple VIX index <.VXAPL>, which measures the expected 30-day volatility of the underlying shares of Apple, jumped 35 percent last week, suggesting more gyrations ahead as more investors speculate on short-term moves.

(The story updates column sent late Friday with Dow and Nasdaq highs)

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Sunday. Questions or comments on this one can be emailed to: angela.moon(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting By Angela Moon; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Job gains seen in suffering 'sand states'

The four states hit hardest by the housing bust — Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada — have seen job growth pick up noticeably in recent months. And that bodes well for the nation's employment picture.
By Andrew Wardlow, AP
Spring Breakers pack the beach in Panama City Beach, Fla.. on March 15, 2012.
All four states are tourism and retirement meccas. They're benefiting as the housing crisis eases, Americans travel more amid the improving economy, and the flow of retirees to Sunbelt states picks up modestly after slowing to a trickle in the downturn, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.
The states "were huge drags on the job market, and now, they're contributing to growth," Zandi says.
  • INTERACTIVE: Where the jobs are

From August through January, the rate of job gains in three of the four states equaled or exceeded the U.S. overall. Florida had been surpassing the nation until it lost 38,600 jobs in January, according to Labor Department figures released March 13. Still, the nearly 250,000 jobs added in the "sand states" in the six-month period account for nearly a quarter of the U.S. total, and Moody's expects their rate of payroll growth to exceed the nation's this year.
That marks a dramatic turnaround. Job growth in all four states was slower than the nation's from early 2010 until last July, as falling home values slammed household wealth and the construction business.
The states' unemployment rates still exceed the nation's 8.3%. Nevada had the nation's highest jobless rate in January at 12.7%. California was at 10.9%; Florida, 9.6%; and Arizona, 8.7%.
They also face other formidable challenges as they continue to work through numerous foreclosures this year, and real estate prices fall further. But the housing price declines have eased, and both residential and commercial building are rebounding modestly.
Moody's expects housing permits to total about 164,000 this year in the four states, up from 106,000 in 2011, though that's far below levels reached during the real estate bubble. Permits will fall in Nevada this year before rising sharply in 2013, Moody's says.
"The spillovers from the housing bust are diminishing," Goldman Sachs said in a recent report on the four states.
The sand states' rebound is good news because they have potential to power U.S. job growth, economists say. Zandi expects the sand states to lead the U.S. when their construction employment picks up more sharply next year.
Meanwhile, their leisure and hospitality employment growth averaged 3.3% in 2011, vs. 2.3% in the U.S., as vacationers flocked to Florida beaches, Las Vegas casinos and Scottsdale, Ariz., resorts. Also, older Americans who had put off retirement began moving to the Sunbelt again, as their investment portfolios recovered and stabilizing real estate prices allowed some to sell their homes, Zandi says.
About 286,000 more residents moved into the four states than moved out in the year ending July 1, up from 172,000 two years earlier, according to the Census Bureau.
Other sectors are also growing. In California, booming social media, cloud computing and smartphone firms are hiring. Dan Losito, 31, recently quit his job as a stock compensation specialist at Fidelity Investments in Kentucky to take a similar position at Motorola Mobility in San Diego. There are "a lot more companies in the tech industry that give equity to employees," he says.
The tech job boom is having ripple effects. The Iron Cactus/Creamery, a San Francisco café and sports bar, saw sales rise 35% last year, prompting it to hire 12 employees, says general manager Ivor Bradley.
In Tampa, biomedical firms are investing and hiring, says Bob Rohrlack, CEO of the Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce. "When the economy went down, everyone was hunkering down," he says.
Recently, there's been a shift, he says, with businesses saying, "We're not going to wait for others to pull us out."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: Sitting scared costs you money

As the largest asset manager, BlackRock has more than $3 trillion in assets under management — more than the Federal Reserve and more than the GDP of some small countries — and is on a new campaign to get money moving once again in the world. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has been getting out the message about the challenges and opportunities of taking action with your money, rather than sitting on the sidelines. He says keeping money in cash and money markets is costing you more than you think. Our interview follows, edited for clarity and length.

  • Larry Fink: Whatever you need to retire,

    By Jerome Favre,, Bloomberg News

    Larry Fink: Whatever you need to retire, "You're not going to earn that with zero interest in cash."

By Jerome Favre,, Bloomberg News

Larry Fink: Whatever you need to retire, "You're not going to earn that with zero interest in cash."

Q: People have been afraid to take risk and have poured money into safe cash accounts, money market accounts and low-yielding bonds. Why is that so bad?

A: If you're focusing on your retirement, the compounding effect to get to the proper nest egg is very important. If you're 35 or 45 years old and you're earning zero interest because you have it in cash, it gives you a deeper hole to build your nest egg in the future. If you're trying to build a nest egg for retirement, you have to ask yourself, can you afford the cost of earning zero, and what does that mean over the course of 30 years? And if your horizon is truly 30 years, why are you worried about daily volatility or the noise of oil prices and other daily ups and downs? If you believe that the world is going to be operating, and will be larger in 30 years, you'd better start focusing on the cost of earning zero in money. There is a big cost to earning zero interest on your money.

Q: How should folks invest money that is sitting in a money market account?

A: You have to have a much longer-term viewpoint. First, you have to change your guidepost. Ask yourself, how much money do I need when I retire? You have to have a strong belief, if you're in good health, that you will live to probably your mid-80s. And if you're a couple who are in your 60s and in good health, statistically, one of the two of you will live to 92. So you need adequacy in your nest egg when you retire to meet those financial needs as you live longer. People today are preoccupied in trying to live a better, longer life. They may be exercising more, taking vitamins, having regular examinations. We do that because we want to live longer. We're so preoccupied with finding a lifestyle that allows us to live longer and more successfully, but we don't take that same horizon when we invest for our retirement. What I'm trying to suggest is once you start to say, I need X dollars in retirement, then you work backwards. You're not going to earn that with zero interest in cash. You're going to need some form of returns, and there are areas where you can earn 4%, 5%, 6% type of returns over a course of a long time, and that's generally shares of dividend-paying companies and other forms of credit such as high-yield and other products that will give you a higher return than cash. So if you needed, let's say, $40,000 pretax to live by or $55,000 pretax to live by, work backwards. Depending on your life, your age, how much money do you need to put away? What type of return do you need to earn to build that nest egg? And I think too few people are focusing on that.

Q: Are the best returns in stocks?

A: I'm not against bonds or annuities if you are willing to put more of your current income into an annuity. If you put it into an annuity or some form of bonds, you're just going to have to put more of your disposable income away. If you don't have that much disposable income to put away now, then look at different alternatives such as stocks.

Q: So you're not against bonds and you like annuities, but you prefer, in terms of getting income, putting money into dividend-paying companies so that you get a stream of income.

A: Or make an overt statement and instead of right now allocating, let's say 7% or 8% of my disposable income into my retirement, you could say I want to take less risk and stay in bonds, but in doing so with a lower return, you're probably going to have to contribute 10% or 12% of your disposable income. You're going to have to forsake consumption today for earning a bigger nest egg tomorrow. So it's a trade-off.

Q: What about the fundamentals supporting the stock market? How is the economy doing?

A: Globally, it's mixed. I don't think it's a groundswell of improvement worldwide, but there's incremental improvement in different regions of the world.

The U.S. is improving faster than other parts of the world. Whether it was the bank stress tests and Europe working on their stress test last year and this year, it allowed us to have a little more dynamic flexibility in our economy, and so we're starting to see more growth. For the first time in a year or so, we're starting to see some job improvement, and this is related to a slow but consistent growth in corporate earnings and over $1 trillion in cash on balance sheets. Corporations are starting to put some of that money to work in terms of employment and maybe even factories.

Q: One of the issues for the economy recently has been the price of oil. Do you worry that can derail an economic recovery?

A: No question oil could, like it did last year, drag on our economy and slow things down. But the oil situation will be a bigger problem for Europe than the U.S., because the dollar is stronger vs. the euro than it has been. What I'm worried about is if oil stays at this price or goes higher.

Q: Is Europe still a big problem?

A: One of the reasons we've seen stability in Europe has a lot to do with the liquidity that the European Central Bank has provided to the European banks, and that has stabilized the markets quite significantly. If oil prices remain this high and you see higher inflation in Europe, you will see the ECB having less flexibility in trying to stimulate the economy. What (ECB President Mario) Draghi has done has stabilized Europe. The problems now are the new governments of Spain and Italy, specifically, which have created some very stern austerity programs to balance their budgets, and those programs are creating a weakness in the euro community. Spain and Italy will have recessionary numbers this year.

The real key is once they stabilize their financing, can they stabilize their economies in the latter part of 2012 into 2013 to navigate their economies to be a growth economy again? And that's the big question that we don't have the answers yet.

Bartiromo is anchor of CNBC's Closing Bell and anchor and managing editor of the nationally syndicated Wall Street Journal Report with Maria Bartiromo. On Twitter: @mariabartiromo. To see previous columns, go to Bartiromo.usatoday.com.

Dividends paid by companies hit record $263 billion

Dividend-hungry investors are finally getting their due, and in a big way.

  • Thinkstock

Companies are on pace to pay a record $263 billion in dividends to shareholders over the next year, topping the $253 billion they were paying as of June 2008, S&P Capital IQ says. Dividend payments are back to record levels even though stock prices, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500, are still more than 10% below the peak they hit in October 2007.

"We're seeing good dividend increases across the board," says Richard Helm of Cohen & Steers Dividend Value fund. "Companies are running very profitable and cash-rich right now." Dividend payments setting new highs shows improving:

Fundamentals of businesses. Coming off a banner year for earnings when profit at S&P 500 companies jumped 16%, Corporate America is sitting on a record of more than $1 trillion in cash. Investors have been clamoring to get some of that cash returned to them, says Robert Maltbie of Singular Research. They are getting their wish: The dividends to be paid out by companies this year are already 39% higher than it was in August 2009, S&P Capital IQ says.

Health of banks. The biggest new driver for dividend growth is coming from the banks. Banks, which accounted for a third of the dividends paid out in the early 2000s, slashed them in 2009. That year bank dividends were just 9% of all dividends paid. But many banks are reinstating or increasing dividends after the results of last week's stress tests. Banks account for 13% of dividends, and that's expected to rise, says Kevin Shacknofsky of Alpine Dynamic Dividend fund.

Returns for investors. In an era of low interest rates, dividend increases are vital for investors seeking rising returns, Helm says. S&P 500 dividend stocks have an average yield of 2.1%, which rivals the 2.3% yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries. And analysts expect dividends to rise further. There's growth coming from sectors that traditionally haven't paid large dividends, such as technology, Shacknofsky says.

And companies can afford to pay more. They are paying out just 30% of their earnings as dividends, down from the 35% they've paid in recent years and 52% long-term average, Maltbie says. "Dividends are going higher," he says. "Investors are demanding it. They want cash."

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Starbucks to open first Evolution Fresh juice store

Starbucks is about to find out just how much it can squeeze out of its brand.

Today, the world's biggest coffee chain will open its very first retail store — dubbed Evolution Fresh — that will not be centered on the coffee cup, but, instead, on the juice bottle.

Goodbye grind. Hello squeeze.

A nation of Starbucks lovers and haters — and a world of retailers that only wishes it could mimic the coffee giant's success — is enamored with this supersecret store that's quietly but frantically been under construction in the chi-chi city of Bellevue, Wash., just east of Seattle.

The grand opening comes four months after Starbucks purchased the little-known Evolution Fresh brand, and two days before the company's annual meeting, where CEO Howard Schultz will prophetically point to Evolution Fresh as an early glimpse of the company's future beyond the coffee bean.

For Starbucks, this is the beginning of a carefully crafted path for growth beyond java. Starbucks has one eye squarely on the $50 billion world of health and wellness, where it believes the premium juices and vegan and veggie dishes that the new chain will sell could attract a different type of well-to-do consumer than those who patronize its gourmet coffee shops. At the same time, Starbucks is hankering to run with behemoths such as Kraft and PepsiCo in the near $1 trillion world of consumer packaged goods.

Before any other media, USA TODAY was given exclusive access to the two senior Starbucks executives who will oversee the evolution to premium juice and the even larger evolution into consumer products. If it works, Starbucks could stamp an even bigger cultural footprint than it already has. If it fails, Starbucks may have to go back to the drawing board and rethink if and how it can still dream beyond the bean.

"Our customers are looking for a healthier lifestyle," says Jeff Hansberry, the former Procter & Gamble executive who is now president of Starbucks Channel Development, which will ultimately oversee a plethora of new brands and products. "Juice and nutrition is no longer a fad. It's a full-blown trend," he says.

Some 66% of Americans say they factor in the "healthfulness" of a product before they buy it, Hansberry says.

It's hard to overstate the keen interest among competitors and consumers in the opening of this store. The java world is watching to see if Starbucks can pull off a decidedly non-java retail move. The $5 billion refrigerated juice world is watching to see if Starbucks is about to eat — or drink — its lunch. Consumers want to know if Starbucks-owned juice joints can sprout on as many street corners as its coffee shops. (In a word: no.)

A certain look

The first Evolution Fresh store, which Starbucks has kept under wraps, will be like an upscale health food store. All food and drink is natural — no artificial colors, preservatives or additives. The store, whose windows were wrapped in brown paper Sunday evening to keep curious consumers and media from peering in, is designed with mostly white walls, light woods and marble countertops. Juices are customized in an area where employees mix juices from eight taps while videos explain the benefits and options.

"Evolution Fresh is the most innovative store since Apple entered retail," boasts Arthur Rubinfeld, president of global store development.

The prices may seem Apple-like, too. A full-size juice and salad (or sandwich) could set you back the better part of $20. Figure $7.99 for a 16-ounce hand-crafted juice. Another $8.25 for a salad — and $2.50 more if you want chicken or steak on it. Hot or cold sandwich "bowls" fetch $8.75. And a wrap — wrapped in collard greens, not pita — will set you back $7.50.

It's no Happy Meal. Then, again, it's surely the closest Starbucks has come to serving an exceptionally healthy meal. Every bottle of juice, for example, has two to three pounds of pressed fruits and vegetables.

Among the juices: Field of Greens — which blends greens, ginger, apple and cucumber. Or Coconut Zen, made with coconut water, pineapple and cucumber. There are smoothies, too, at $6.99 for a 16-ounce drink. The Smooth Mango is made with apple juice, mangoes, papayas and pineapple.

Want to add a shot of blueberry? — that's 50 cents. Want some wheatgrass? That's another $1.95. But don't look for extra vitamins for sale. "They're already (naturally) in there," Hansberry says.

Even the sweets put on the face of wholesomeness; you won't find brownies. But there are $2.70 Belgian chocolate granola bars. No ice cream. But how about a $2 dish of chocolate coconut mousse?

This is not your father's — or mother's — Starbucks.

For one thing, there is virtually nothing visual that links it to the Starbucks chain. No signage. No cups. No colors. No Grande. No Venti. No Trenta. The only mention of the Starbucks name is a small spot on the menu board that notes Starbucks Pike Place Roast is available for $1.95. Ah, but even that's not dispensed in the familiar Starbucks cup. The coffee cup is logo-less.

Why no Starbucks mention in Evolution Fresh? "We believe it's a brand concept that stands on its own," Hansberry says.

Nor are there baristas. They've been replaced by "juice partners" who'll be decked out in long, canvas-colored aprons — with the green, Evolution logo — worn over gray, long-sleeve pullovers.

But since this is Starbucks, even its juice must come with a twist. The juice is highly pressurized before it gets to the store in a giant cold press that retains the nutrients of the raw fruit and veggies often lost in heat pasteurization. Since the juice comes pressed, the juice partners don't actually squeeze it. They dole out advice, mix customized juices to order and make smoothies. The company takes this first store so seriously that it's been training the juice partners for months in a specially designed, built-to-scale mock store.

Even then, there will be a lot less "show" than Starbucks baristas tend to put on mixing, grinding and creating drinks.

Executives declined to detail growth plans for Evolution Fresh. But there will be "several" opening in the Seattle market in the next year and more will open on the East and West coasts, says Rubinfeld. This is not a test. This is the future of Starbucks: growth on supermarket shelves — well beyond caffeine.

The Evolution Fresh brand is sold at grocers in the states of Washington and California. In the next few months, it also will show up in Starbucks stores in both states, replacing the Naked Juice brand currently sold at Starbucks. It will likely take months until distribution is national, in part, because there's just one facility that currently makes the juice, and it's in San Bernardino, Calif.

There are doubters, for sure. "Does America need 5,000 new juice bars?" asks Bradford Hudson, professor of marketing at Boston University. "I'd be very hesitant on this one."

But some think Evolution Fresh a no-brainer, if only because Starbucks is behind it. "If anyone can design, develop and deploy a new beverage platform, it's Starbucks," says Scott Bedbury, CEO of the consulting firm Brandstream and former Starbucks marketing chief. "There is no brand that has a higher level of beverage trust."

That said, Bedbury notes that profit margins on juice won't be anywhere near that of coffee or tea.

Other advantages

While juice doesn't have the growth engine of coffee, it's got a direct correlation to the health and wellness category, which has enormous growth potential, says John Sicher, publisher of Beverage Digest. Besides, he says, "Name me a better marketing company than Starbucks."

Gary Stibel, CEO of New England Consulting Group, has questions about the concept, but not the guy behind it. "This could miss the mark," he says of Evolution Fresh. "But then, again, I'd never want to underestimate Howard Schultz. He's the Steven Jobs of the coffee business."

But James White, CEO of Jamba Juice, which has a 22-year head start on Starbucks, and 750 stores in 26 states, says he isn't shaking in his shoes at the news of Starbucks entering his turf. "We have a 750-unit advantage, and we have no peers."

It's no coincidence, however, that since the Starbucks announcement, Jamba has aggressively rolled out a new line of all-natural, fresh juice blends and also acquired Talbott Teas.

White says Starbucks has its work ahead. "I'd never heard of Evolution Fresh before Starbucks bought them, and I study the industry," he says. "It takes time to build a brand."

Starbucks has some experience at that. Frappuccino, for example, is a $2 billion brand. "We are uniquely experienced in creating and building brands," says Rubinfeld.

For folks who live or work in Bellevue — but can't find time to go to the store — fear not. Evolution Fresh will come to you. It's delivered, at no extra charge, by an eco-friendly, white-and-green striped customized bike. Of course, the juice drinks will arrive perfectly chilled.

Cars.com/USA TODAY/MotorWeek $16,000 Subcompact Shootout

ARCADIA, Calif. – As rising fuel prices spotlight the value of good gas mileage, low-price subcompact cars are leaving showrooms at a rate of three for every two that dealers were selling a year ago.
  • For our Shootout we drove (l-r, back row) Ford Fiesta, Toyota Yaris, Kia Rio, Honda Fit, (front row, l-r) Chevrolet Sonic, Hyundai Accent and Nissan Versa.
    By Evan Sears, Cars.com
    For our Shootout we drove (l-r, back row) Ford Fiesta, Toyota Yaris, Kia Rio, Honda Fit, (front row, l-r) Chevrolet Sonic, Hyundai Accent and Nissan Versa.
By Evan Sears, Cars.com
For our Shootout we drove (l-r, back row) Ford Fiesta, Toyota Yaris, Kia Rio, Honda Fit, (front row, l-r) Chevrolet Sonic, Hyundai Accent and Nissan Versa.
Many recession-battered buyers who can't afford $30,000 for 50-mpg hybrids, are looking to small cars priced half that for relief from $4 gasoline.
It's still a niche of the new car market: Despite 49% higher sales through February this year vs. a year ago, cars classed "lower small" by tracker Autodata — essentially all subcompacts — still account for just three of every 100 new vehicles sold.
Subcompacts are the cheapest new car alternative, though the average transaction price of $16,287 this year is up 14% from two years ago, J.D. Power and Associates data show. For perspective, the average out-the-door price for the next size up, compacts, is $19,462, Power says, and for all vehicles it's $28,080.
Inspired by the increasing interest in subcompacts, our latest head-to-auto competition — the Cars.com/USA TODAY/MotorWeek $16,000 Subcompact Shootout — aimed to see where you can get the most for your money in an entry-level small car. It pitted seven of the small cars with stickers of $16,000 or less (before shipping) against each other in three days of testing.
The results can help you sort through the flood of information available — even help you decide if you'd be happier with a nearly new used car, or maybe spending a bit more for a compact with more room and features.
You can find more online at cars.usatoday.com and Cars.com. MotorWeek will air its Shootout coverage starting this week.
Surprises: The best-selling subcompact, the redesigned Nissan Versa, came in last. And the oldest design among the contenders, Honda Fit, came in first.
More than fuel prices have driven showroom traffic for subcompacts. There are new models, redesigns of existing nameplates and more advertising. Six of the seven Shootout contenders are new or significantly redesigned.
"These are the new-generation subcompacts," says Thomas King, senior director at J.D. Power and Associates. "They have a lot of equipment and a lot of technology and electronic features you didn't see in the past. People want fuel economy, but they want the features, too."
The Shootout found some models riding the crest of this "new-generation" curve, others lagging.
To make the field, a car's window-sticker price had to be $16,000 or less, while having four doors, seating for four, an automatic transmission and a government gas mileage rating of at least 35 mpg on the highway.
The last may not seem a high bar. Nowadays, many bigger cars have mileage ratings that good. Hyundai's Sonata and Toyota's Camry midsize sedans, for example, have 35 mpg highway ratings.
Subcompacts tend to be less aerodynamic, which hurts their highway mileage, but their lighter weight can give them an mpg edge on city and suburban streets, the most common driving.
Sticker price can grow
One thing to watch out for: You might have to work to get one at the low sticker price. Dealers have less profit margin than on bigger vehicles and sometimes are tempted to pad the sticker with "dealer-installed" furbelows.
Buyers, such as Richard Mark, 37, a mechanical engineer in Norfolk, Va., complain that it's hard to find a low-price small car. "They're advertised very low, but they come in with dealer options added," he says, boosting asking prices above what's on the sticker or in ads.
Mark bought a Nissan Versa recently for "about $15,500, out the door" by tapping into buying adviser FightingChance.com. It helped him save about $1,000 by advising him to, among other moves, shop outside his immediate area.
He also looked at a Chevrolet Sonic, he says, but "it basically came down to price. The Chevy had a dealer package costing roughly 800 bucks that was pinstriping, wheel locks, window etching.
"I said, 'You're making me take $800 of stuff I don't want. If you were $800 lower we'd be good to go.' But (the dealer) wouldn't come down."
Of the Shootout cars, Sonic, Versa, Fit, Accent and Kia Rio came from automakers' test fleets. The Ford Fiesta and Toyota Yaris were obtained by Cars.com through car brokers.
The lowest-price beast in our herd was Versa, with a sticker of $12,930 before shipping. Its only concessions to civilization were floor mats and the Shootout-required automatic transmission.
Highest was the Hyundai Accent: $15,990.
It quickly was clear that you have to spend every bit of the $16,000 Shootout budget to get a pleasant, livable car. The lowest-price contenders were scored down for lack of features and "cheapness," even though "value" was a key factor in the scoring.
So, a cheap car isn't necessarily a good value.
Beyond value gaps, other big differences among the little cars suggest that shoppers must be thorough in researching what features are standard or optional, and be careful in their decisions.
Smaller, cheaper subcompacts force automakers to make tough choices, and thus the test cars showed more variety, and a wider range of scores, than vehicles in some other Shootouts. Often the scores are tightly grouped for more expensive vehicles because they have pretty much the same elements, packaged a little differently by each automaker.
Among the Shootout subcompacts, there was little conformity on:
•Drivetrains. All had gasoline four-cylinder engines, but power varied from Yaris' low of 106 horsepower to the 138 hp ratings of Sonic's relatively big 1.8-liter four-cylinder and the smaller, direct-injection engines in corporate siblings Kia Rio and Hyundai Accent.
The variety of automatics was stunning. Versa had a CVT (continuously variable-ratio transmission). Yaris had an old-design four-speed automatic. Fit had a five-speed automatic, while Rio and Accent had six-speeds. And Fiesta had a six-speed dual-clutch gearbox (essentially a manual transmission shifted automatically by electronics). Such transmissions can improve gas mileage but may not shift as smoothly as conventional automatics.
•Features. Some had hand-crank windows, others power. Some had barely adjustable seats, others multiple adjustments. Some had manual outside mirrors, others power.
Sonic was an odd mix: upscale remote-control locks but downscale hand-crank windows.
•Space. Some were cramped, others remarkably spacious. Most were in-between.
Will it last?
One attribute of any car — no matter how much research you do — remains a gamble: reliability.
Mark, who bought the Versa, notes, "I was coming out of a 1996 Saturn SL2. It had 240,000 miles, lasted forever. I really hope this Nissan Versa will do the same."